bloomberg,  Wed Mar 21 22:38:03 EDT 2007

    March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Sri Lanka and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam escalated fighting in recent months, creating a refugee population of more than 200,000 people, in a conflict that analysts said won't be won by either side.

``The two parties have decided to fight each other,'' said Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. ``Continuing the current spate of violence is not going to bring about a different outcome or change the status quo.''

The South Asian island nation of 20 million people is experiencing the worst fighting since a cease-fire was declared in 2002, a truce that helped the $26 billion economy post uninterrupted growth since then. Two rounds of peace talks in Geneva last year between the government and LTTE failed to make any progress.
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- The Academic

If war cannot be won, why is LTTE fighting?


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“We are helping Tamilnadu to achieve self-rule” - V. Balakumaran, Advisor to Prabakaran, (Jan. 2006)

Gotabhaya says he needs 3 years (and untold millions of rupees and many many human lives) to win this "unwinnable" war. Do the math and you will work out that also means another 5 year term for the Rajapakse Brothers Corporation !  

systemx wrote:

If war cannot be won, why is LTTE fighting?

good question. I humbly offer a top five list of reasons:

5.Because it cannot stop.
4.Because it doesn't want to stop.
3.Because it doesn't know what to do if it stops.
2.Because fighting is l.t.t.e's bread and butter.
1.Because Pirbakaran has an uncontrollable itch to dial M due to a mystery spider in his bunker.

systemx wrote:

If war cannot be won, why is LTTE fighting?

Good question it is not the LTTE who want war ,It is  Mahinda holdings (Pvt) ltd ,they need to survive .it is a new company so they will stop soon as they earned enough for their long term future. Let us help them as much we can.

Tusker wrote:

Gotabhaya says he needs 3 years (and untold millions of rupees and many many human lives) to win this "unwinnable" war. Do the math and you will work out that also means another 5 year term for the Rajapakse Brothers Corporation !  

This is not to win the war they knows they cant.This is to rob the country and buy one/two states in USA settl down there.They knows they wil b chased away in three years time.

jack wrote:

Good question it is not the LTTE who want war ,It is  Mahinda holdings (Pvt) ltd ,they need to survive .

Yup fully agree. LTTE never wanted war. They were always for peace. They infact are not a terrorist organization but a peace force. All previous peace efforts were disrupted by the respective governments by carrying out massive surprise attacks on LTTE camps killing 100s of LTTE carders overnight having re-grouped and streangthend themselves during the peace talks.

Rohan Gunaratna! Whose payroll is he on? Definitely he is not aware which way this war will go. His statement is a “speculation” of some sort. As the head Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, one would expect that with his expert knowledge of the subject matter to have substantiated his uttering with facts and figures. If he cannot properly analyze the prevailing situation, then he should shut up and withdraw the article. He should not irresponsibly behave like a lose cannon and blabber like a cheap politician – demoralizing the Forces. The rebels shall be crushed; this is a war against terrorists. If this guy Rohan is anyone to go by, then Afghanistan and Iraq may be left alone. Why the hell multinational forces are fighting a war that cannot be won – He definitely owes an apology to the peace loving people of SL - Singhalese, Tamil and other minorities. Rohan! Keep your lips tight. "Lose lips sink ships" -Winston Churchill-

I don't understand why Rohan talks about negotiations and Sanjana's bizzare theory that they want to fight because you can negotiate favourabley. What ever it is these two have found a living. As far as tamils are concerned their fate is determined by fighting back. No options! Even LTTE should leave it to the hands of Tamil people.

The population of USA is 300 million.
160 million are retired.
That leaves 140 million to do the work.
There are 85 million in school.
Which leaves 55 million to do the work.
Of this there are 35 million employed by the federal government.
Leaving 15 million to do the work.
2.8 million are in the armed forces
Which leaves 12.2 million to do the work.
Take from that total the 10.8 million people who work for state and city governments.
And that leaves 1.4 million to do the work.
At any given time there are 188,000 people in hospitals.
Leaving 1,212,000 to do the work.
Now, there are 1,211,998 people in prisons.
That leaves just two people to do the work.

You and me

And there you are,
sitting on your ass,
at your computer, reading all these crap from Rohan whos is a joker himself !!!

As per this statistics only 2 guys writing in TLA do work.
So are rest of those who write to TLA from US are in the prison?

In almost all civic strife in any part of the world in the 20th and the 21st century, including the Russian and the Chinese revolutions, transition, if there was transition, was based on negotiation. In other instances where there was no immediate transition, i.e., the status quo remained in terms of power of government, like in pre-independent Kenya and Malaysia, the end to hostilities were negotiated. Of most of the major civic insurrections, terrorist campaigns etc, the only group that never achieved their stated aim were the Malaysian communists. In 90 percent of other campaigns, terror groups, guerilla groups, revolutionaries, whatever you prefer to call the anti-establishment combatants, more than 70-80 percent of their original objectives were achieved in the end, even if the groups did not live to see the light of the day when that happened. For instance, the Red Brigades of Italy and Germany were completely suppressed, but their objectives in terms of very much more liberal outlook of civilian life in these countries were in place by the time the movements died out. Recent studies into terrorism, (Ganor, B. (2007), The Counter Terrorism Puzzle, Transaction, London, Beckett, I, (2005) Modern Insurgencies and Counter- Insurgencies, Rutledge, London, Nagl, J (2005), Learning to eat soup with a knife, University of Chicago Press, Chicago - and others) provide substantial evidence of the eventual turn of events in terrorism campaigns. Professor Ganor, who works closely with the Isreali Defence establishment, which has over 70 years of experience in both terrorism and counter-terrorism (keeping in mind that Isreal was born through the unholy wedlock of a terrorist campaign and a civic rights movement,) provides the most compelling evidence that military action alone will not suppress or annihilate terrorism. Isreal's defence budget is more than 50 times our total GDP and even with that kind of military spending, Isreal has not been able to suppress Palestinian terror actions. The US is pouring trillions of dollars into Iraq to "restore law and order". This is the fifth year of that campaign and already the US and the Iraqi government is deeply involved in seeking a negotiated settlement with the Shi'a and Sunni Groups along with the other minorities that make up Iraq's geopolitical landscape. The entry of Iran into this deepening quagmire and the fact that US is in fact welcoming Iran is a significant factor in a negotiated settlement.

systemx wrote:

If war cannot be won, why is LTTE fighting?

They are waiting for Sri Lanka to fall apart.They are vultures waiting for the prey.

Word war 2 ended in a win to a one party and not a draw...
If that time US and Russia come into a agreement with Natsy Hitlar and Facist Mutsolini, what kind of a world would us be living by now?

Say no to cohabitation with terrorists!!!!

Negotiations vs Military Action.

Negotiations in times of conflict is most welcome and can achieve favourable results if both sides can not only talk but can also listen.  Can someone please suggest an agenda for an immediate ceasefire and talks, bearing in mind that there is one non-negotiable condition - the country remains a whole from Point Pedro to Dondra Head - one Central Govt.   We cant let every Dick, Tom and Harry with a gun or a bomb have a slice on Mother Lanka.