com,  Wed Jan 11 17:11:34 EST 2006

    Colombo: Amid diplomatic pressure on the LTTE to start peace talks, Tiger rebels in Sri Lanka on Wednesday said that Tamil civilians were demanding the withdrawal of government forces from the island’s troubled regions. A movement known as ‘Tamil Uprising,’ which is seen as a front of the guerrillas, staged a public rally in the district of Trincomalee on Tuesday to press for the troops’ withdrawal, the LTTE said.

"Reconfirming the proclamation adopted at the Tamil Uprising (movement) in Vavuniya on 27 July 2005 and subsequent endorsements at Batticaloa, Mannar, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Mullaittivu and Jaffna, the Tamil people in Trincomalee once again congregated at Kadatkaraichchenai in Muttur east on Tuesday 10th January 2006, (and) reiterated the demand to the Sri Lanka military to quit the parts of Tamil Homeland that it occupies," the LTTE said.
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- The Academic

The movement "Tamil Uprising" can be a distraction that the LTTE hopes to utilise in order to deviate the attention of the international community from the peace process. The GOSL must tackle this issue very carefully because if mishandled, this issue can generate international sympathy towards separation.

The government and the sinhalese must appreciate the fact that the international community has turned against LTTE purely because of their use of terror. The attitude of the international community has nothing to do with the demand for a separate state. A few years ago, I expected Prabhakaran to give up terror and turn the separatist campaign into a political campaign. We should not ignore the fact that at any time, he can change his tactics and totally give up violence. Some will argue (validly) that a terrorist can only be sustained by terror and that Prabhakaran will not survive a transformation into politics. But, in the early seventies, many people would have thought so about Yasser Arafat too.

A good way to look at this issue is to ask the question, "What would have been Kadirgamar's response to a purely political campaign for a separate tamil state?" Of course, he would have opposed it. But, would he have opposed it to the same extent and in the same manner as he opposed LTTE terrorism? Would he have supported the offer of a federal solution in such a situation?

Prabhakaran's use of the Tamil Uprising movement may be the first step in the transformation. If the campaign for separation in SL is purely political, the attitude of the international community will be very different from what it is today. In such a scenario, the GOSL can count on international support, if and only if it can demonstrate to the world that it has a valid and justifiable alternative to separation. His current campaign of violence against SL forces (he has not so far attacked civilians in the current campaign - touch wood) may be to place himself in a position where he can say to the international community, "all right, if I give up violence completely, what do I get in return?".

It is upto the GOSL to consider the current situation from all these angles and prepare an appropriate response.

It is the valid and justifiable alternative to separation that MR, the presidential candidate, rejected at the instigation of the JVP and the JHU.

"You need to take an active role in both promoting the process and educating the country about the benefits of its success or the consequence of its failure,” he said.

There is a trend in the north east created by tigers as the there are specific demand from the people. Those are
    1. Remove the forces form the civilian-living areas.
    2. Remove the high security zone from north-east.
These will be the main demands from LTTE when the peace talks begin, and that is where they are heading. On LTTE's viewpoint they are planning the things well ahead for peace too. They have the reason to tell the world that this is what the people demand (they have facts from the past few weeks happenings). The only oppose points will come from JVP and JHU and MR have no option, because co-chairs might agree with LTTE. Also south is not ready with an alternative solution.
Now re-read the US ambassador’s talk. Hope that things are pre-planned.

The LTTE blames every CFA violation on unknown parties, Colonel Karuna or the SLA. Now we have a third party. The LTTE occupied areas seems to be anarchy and the SLA must immediately take control over all of Sri Lanka. Allowing a terrorist organisation to have a strong hold in the North is a very bad idea. Forth, fifth and sixth parties is likely to emerge if not action is taken.

The LTTE is now trying to start an uprising in Tamil Nadu. Who's next? Canada, England or Denmark? Where ever there is a terrorist organisation there is a problem. President Rajapakse must stop allowing the LTTE or unknown third, forth, fifth or sixth parties to slaughter more Sri Lankan citizens. Today we read in Lankatruth about the LTTE leaders raping LTTE female cadres. We all know about Prabakaran wild sex life with LTTE girls.

We read UNESCO report, Amnesty and HRW of all the child recruitment. Why is the Sri Lankan Government allowing these crimes?

soft dreams! Your desire and reality are different.
If that is possible (take over all over SL) why GOSL having so much trouble. Karuna can do nothing in the countries strugle. Now even SLA is not beleiving Karuna group as there seems to be few of the Karuna's members are LTTE's intelligents.
The recent Ache province rebel problem is an example where LTTE is following, I hope.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/2005129/aceh_troops_051229/20051229?hub=TopStories
there were uprising happened in EU, Toronto and few other places already. You do not want to follow them. But the world is watching. LTTE is thinkg

Hi KKK123

kkk123 wrote:

The government and the sinhalese must appreciate the fact that the international community has turned against LTTE purely because of their use of terror. The attitude of the international community has nothing to do with the demand for a separate state. A few years ago, I expected Prabhakaran to give up terror and turn the separatist campaign into a political campaign. We should not ignore the fact that at any time, he can change his tactics and totally give up violence. Some will argue (validly) that a terrorist can only be sustained by terror and that Prabhakaran will not survive a transformation into politics. But, in the early seventies, many people would have thought so about Yasser Arafat too.

Prabhakaran's use of the Tamil Uprising movement may be the first step in the transformation. If the campaign for separation in SL is purely political, the attitude of the international community will be very different from what it is today. In such a scenario, the GOSL can count on international support, if and only if it can demonstrate to the world that it has a valid and justifiable alternative to separation. His current campaign of violence against SL forces (he has not so far attacked civilians in the current campaign - touch wood) may be to place himself in a position where he can say to the international community, "all right, if I give up violence completely, what do I get in return?".

Your argument on its own merits is quite reasonable and logical, as far as I can see.  However much it "makes sense," however, it must be consistent with our National Leader's worldview and outlook.

Our Leader had the best opportunity to "transform" the Movement in 2002-2003.  The Srilankan security forces had been totally humiliated in Eelam War III and the LTTE was ascendant.  It had seized virtually the entire Vanni and it was revealed that a large swath of Batticaloa had also come under its domination through the efforts of Karuna.  With these military gains it was only a matter of diplomacy to transfer them to political gains.  One such successful political gain was the nature of the CFA which was skewed towards the LTTE, with the disarming of the "paramilitaries" and the ability of LTTE cadre to do "political work" in govt. areas.  I would definitely credit the LTTE with "good diplomacy" on that score (although it was mightily assisted by Solheim and the rather craven Ranil).  There is no denying that this was the moment to abandon violence and to achieve legitimacy- the time was ripe.

For a reason which I'm at a loss to explain, the LTTE did not reveal its intended political settlement (ISGA) until the end of 2003, by which time the Executive President could dissolve Parliament.  Perhaps our National Leader was hoping to embarrass the GOSL by providing a solution which he knew it would never accept.  It looked as if this gambit might have paid off, as the Donor Co-Chairs were pressuring the new PA govt. to negotiate on the basis of the ISGA.  But then came the Karuna split and the LTTE screwed things up from that point onwards.  It took the opportunity to murder droves of Tamil dissidents by labeling them as Karuna supporters, even when they had no association with him.  Karuna's boys killing cadre compelled the LTTE into reprisal killings.  The LTTE got caught into a vortex of violence which shattered all the political gains from the CFA, particularly wrt the EU which had previously been gravitating towards the LTTE.

I don't think that the Tamil Uprising Movement will have a long term success.  From what I can tell, the IC isn't buying it.  I've seen no condemnation of the GoSL by anyone so far, despite the LTTE's success in provoking Mahinda's boys into stupid retaliations against the Tamils.  The phony "boycott" was also revealed to be a cheap trick.  I would make the argument that all these antics represent the pathetic crudeness still persistent in the LTTE's approach to politics.  However, I would see the logic in these operations as reasonable from a military perspective.  Regardless of the lack of IC response to the "Tamil Uprising," it is demoralizing the soldiers in Jaffna and driving them against the average person.  The LTTE is exploiting the current hardline regime in Colombo not to win credibility from the IC, but from the Tamils who are getting nothing but grief and suffering from Mahinda and his boys.  I would say it is doing a great job in exploiting the short-sightedness and hawkishness of these leaders.

If Mahinda had half a brain, he would consider a policy which would divert attention from what is going on in Jaffna.  For example, imagine what would happen if he announced upcoming elections for an Eastern Provincial Council.  I would predict that the LTTE has not planned for this contingency (it has planned countless contingencies for Mahinda breaking the CFA and launching another "Jayasikuru" into the Vanni) and would cause it to take the East back into heavy consideration.  The GoSL would regain the initiative, at least for the time being, by causing the LTTE to make new plans and go on the defensive.  Would it have the resources to disrupt a future Eastern Provincial Council, let alone the elections, when it failed to enforce the election boycott in Batticaloa????

Missed one!, your earlier post changed suddently.......
Do you read lankatruth daily. You have to. Where did they get the details of the raping cases. You know I read that and I read LTTE's voices too. But tigers never write that SLA army raping their own SLA female soldires.
How they can have a arm force for 25 years with such kind of activities. Even Karuna will never say like that. Dauglas Devananda will never said like that.
But 2 days before SLA taken a school girl to their camp in Thirunelveli and hitback the people in front of SLMM members.

Taraki,

A very clever analysis. I never realized the significance of the opportunity the LTTE had in 2002-2003.

I have always been of the opinion that the LTTE is a war machine and does not have the maturity to tackle the complexities of politics and governing. The Indo-Lanka accord would have made VP, the most powerful man next to the President, and more recently the opportunity in 2002-2003. Probably their perspective was blinded by the split in the movement.

I think MR and his boys are too consumed by the LTTE atrocities that they have lost sight of the main cause that the IC is concerned about… the humanitarian tragedy resulting from a war. In his election campaign he projected an image of not caring about the tamilian civilian population, which has now won over the tamilian public in India. A few years ago, a tamilian from Madras accused me, an ethnic Sinhalese, “You guys have the gall to come over to our country and kill our leaders. What would have happened if a neighbor did the same thing to a leader in the US?”. To him, the ethnic divide didn’t matter, they associated LTTE with Sri Lankans and not with Indians. I would like to speak to this guy again to see where his sympathies lie today.

All these uprisings are by the same people backed by the LTTE.

SLA should get those big heads whenever possible.

GOSL should declare MARSHALL LAW without going to war. that will help SL defence forces to round up all the trouble makers and to shoot any LTTEers.

LTTE may consider next phase of the war as last throw of the dice. They are demanding troops to withdraw from populated regions to minimise civilian casualties. It will not wait and give 2 weeks notice before breaking the ceasefire. They will attack one or more strategic locations in the north east simultaneously after a massive attack on Colombo or elsewhere to divert the attention and to demoralise troops. They will extensively use newly trained LTTE civilian forces to create more confusion. The 2 most likely strategic locations are Jaffna and Trinco. However, LTTE can always surprise you with the unthinkable. This is why we need to setup a think-tank comprising experienced currently serving and retired  military and intelligence personnel to look into all possible scenarios. If govt is not planning to go on the offensive then, all precautions must be taken to manage the initial attack and subsequent ops without any confusion. To this end, it must get ready to completely shutdown/sensor news of ongoing ops. The Army HQ/defense ministry must be moved out of Colombo.  However, attack is the best form of defense. In addition to the above, govt must consider reversing this strategy towards the enemy to end the terrorist menace once and for all.

[quote="Taraki"]........Prabhakaran's use of the Tamil Uprising movement may be the first step in the transformation. ........... our National Leader's worldview and outlook.............Our Leader had the best opportunity to ................The Srilankan security forces had been totally humiliated in Eelam War III and the LTTE was ascendant.  ................... Perhaps our National Leader was hoping ................[/quote]

It is very nice to see some LTTE cadres are now resorting to writing articles rather than killing. Well done Taraki, that is the way to go! We can talk rather than fight in a civilised world! At least converts like you may be able to convey this message and get the sun goat to correct himself just like you did!

Tamils are talking since 1950. But no one wants to here that. Now they are talking with power, that is why the south and people like you want to here them. Isn't it?

systemx wrote:

  To this end, it must get ready to completely shutdown/sensor news of ongoing ops. The Army HQ/defense ministry must be moved out of Colombo.  However, attack is the best form of defense. In addition to the above, govt must consider reversing this strategy towards the enemy to end the terrorist menace once and for all.

Believe it or not many of world news agencies look for Tamil Net site than the PRIU site for real information when they were at war. Just look back five years when Elephant Pass battle was on, adn the Government was denying the fall while LTTE released pictures and video of the battle on the web. Due to technology it is hard to put a lid on information anymore.

It is also interesting to note that many in the South thought they can trick India into Sri Lanka. However now the Indian media (read the article on Decan Herald by Nirupama Subramaniam) is talking about what happened over the last two years. In fact India has used JVP to stir up Ranil and then abandoned them once they called for a unitary state. MR's treatment in his last visit to India and the confirmation by Indian Defence Minister that there will not be any military pact has clearly defined where India stands now. After the elections MR and JVP have awoken Tamil Nadu as well.

What is lacking in Sri Lanka (as always) is an agreement by both UNP and SLFP (ignore the others as they will tilt with the wind) on what they want to propose as a FEASIBLE solution acceptable to the Tamils. Britain has tried to do that with both parties, I think in 1999, and nothing has happened.

In the mean time many of the disillusioned are looking for a statement from some foreign leaders to quell their fears. Expectations were set over the last three months about statements to be made by India, US, EU and Japan. Now many of them have made their statements and nothing significant has happened to quell anything unless a conscientious proposal is put forward by both parties together.



Last edited by LankanExile on Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:38 am; edited 1 time in total

LankanExile wrote:

Believe it or not many of world news agencies look for Tamil Net site than the PRIU site for real information when they were at war. Just look back five years when Elephant Pass battle was on, adn the Government was denying the fall while LTTE released pictures and video of the battle on the web. Due to technology it is hard to put a lid on information anymore.

I agree, but the objective here is to control the bad news reaching local population. To a certain extent it is still possible to sensor news in SL because GOSL has access to the internet submarine cable and the telephone exchange.

LankanExile wrote:

What is lacking in Sri Lanka (as always) is an agreement by both UNP and SLFP (ignore the others as they will tilt with the wind) on what they want to propose as a FEASIBLE solution acceptable to the Tamils.

It would be ideal to offer a feasible solution to the Tamils but, LTTE may not want to wait that long. For them the moral obligation is more important than the political reality. Its their moral obligation not to betray all those who have laid down their lives for the Tamil cause. This is why they will not stop to even look at a compromise. Besides, they have got themselves isolated from all directions. When pushed against the wall, knowing VP, he will think no other option left but to pursue the military option all the way. Only option in my opinion left now is for the Tamil community to force him to compromise. However, I do not think it will happen.