NewKerala,  Tue Feb 23 22:43:51 EST 2010

    Colombo, Feb 24 : The wife of Sri Lanka's detained former army general and defeated presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka will campaign in the forthcoming parliamentary election on behalf of her husband, Xinhua reported Tuesday.

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- The Academic

SF has signed nomination papers to contest Colombo district under DNA with the JVP. It’s going to be political hara-kiri. Who is his main opponent, he has picked RW. SF polled 533,037 votes from the Colombo district in the PE. Can DNA beat UNF to clinch the title and prove DNA is more popular? Can SF get more preferential votes than RW to prove he is more popular than RW?  The political reality is for me a big NO to both the questions. JVP has a vote base of around 25,000 in Colombo district. SF on the 8th of April will find out what his personal vote base is.


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MAC1

Mac, any reason why he did not opt
for a 'safer' constituency ? He may still win but
there is always the doubt if he can survive realpolitik.


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*I am not the only one*

This is a little ironic and quite rich !

One of the banners Mrs. SF is campaigning under is "let's make sure no families / dynasties are in SL politics"

May I be the first to greet the newest politcal dynasty to Sri Lanka!!

Welcome, General and Mrs Fonseka !!! May your eventual reign be as prosperous for you as it has been for all the others

MAC1 wrote:

SF has signed nomination papers to contest Colombo district under DNA with the JVP. It’s going to be political hara-kiri.

Yep, The poor general doesn't seem to learn at all.... He challenged MR in PE and lost, now he is challenging RW and in Colombo too!

proximus wrote:

This is a little ironic and quite rich !

One of the banners Mrs. SF is campaigning under is "let's make sure no families / dynasties are in SL politics"

May I be the first to greet the newest politcal dynasty to Sri Lanka!!

Welcome, General and Mrs Fonseka !!! May your eventual reign be as prosperous for you as it has been for all the others

Proxy; the irony is well pointed out !

However, Mrs SF can defend on this count -
she stepped in to campaign because SF is in 'prison' and
is due for a trial. She's being a proxy for now !


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*I am not the only one*

rm7000 wrote:

Mac, any reason why he did not opt
for a 'safer' constituency ? He may still win but
there is always the doubt if he can survive realpolitik.

Well for me the safest would be to bet on where the JVP is strongest. JVP had over5% vote base in Galle, Matara, & Hambanthota (MR’s home district, where JVP’s strongest showing over 10% ). Or Anuradapura. Rest of the districts JVP showing is around 3% or slightly less in the most recent elections.

If I was to pick I would have gone for Hambantota, for two reasons firstly that is where JVP is strongest and sure to secure a win, secondly taking on MR’s home town where his kith & kin are contesting.

Do you expect JVP to sacrifice there strong holds, that’s the reality in politics. SF is not a matured politician he runs on his ego and others ride on it. SF sympathy vote would be best found in Colombo (if it is there in numbers) and JVP base is 2.5% so chances if JVP is alone they may not get a seat but with SF vote if there is (unknown) SF can scamper through, whilst JVP do not loose any of there prospective places and still butter SF.    

Survival in real politics will depend on how prudent you are and how you learn the game. If SF was a quick leaner and a strategist, he should have taken RW’s call, gone with him taking on the deputy leader position in the UNF. Here he would have learned the ropes faster. Also won and toped a district easily from the opposition side and kept head high and entered to the Parliament without any sweat. On this route he could have posed a real threat to RW’s leadership whilst he builds his own political base.

SF is a too egoistic character to see through all this. Others know it. RW knows much better than anyone else and plays accordingly.


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MAC1

MAC1 wrote:

rm7000 wrote:

Mac, any reason why he did not opt
for a 'safer' constituency ? He may still win but
there is always the doubt if he can survive realpolitik.

Well for me the safest would be to bet on where the JVP is strongest. JVP had over5% vote base in Galle, Matara, & Hambanthota (MR’s home district, where JVP’s strongest showing over 10% ). Or Anuradapura. Rest of the districts JVP showing is around 3% or slightly less in the most recent elections.

If I was to pick I would have gone for Hambantota, for two reasons firstly that is where JVP is strongest and sure to secure a win, secondly taking on MR’s home town where his kith & kin are contesting.

Do you expect JVP to sacrifice there strong holds, that’s the reality in politics. SF is not a matured politician he runs on his ego and others ride on it. SF sympathy vote would be best found in Colombo (if it is there in numbers) and JVP base is 2.5% so chances if JVP is alone they may not get a seat but with SF vote if there is (unknown) SF can scamper through, whilst JVP do not loose any of there prospective places and still butter SF.    

Survival in real politics will depend on how prudent you are and how you learn the game. If SF was a quick leaner and a strategist, he should have taken RW’s call, gone with him taking on the deputy leader position in the UNF. Here he would have learned the ropes faster. Also won and toped a district easily from the opposition side and kept head high and entered to the Parliament without any sweat. On this route he could have posed a real threat to RW’s leadership whilst he builds his own political base.

SF is a too egoistic character to see through all this. Others know it. RW knows much better than anyone else and plays accordingly.

MAC, This is exactly what I thought too
SF is not cut for politics.


I was never comfortable with a strong military in SL. I think its a blessing in disguise that we got the chance to trim down the military without being seen to be too "ungrateful" in the eyes of the people.
Looks like finally stars are aligned in favour of SL    VP is gone together with LTTE, SL military is being trimmed down, Karuna is on the way out and hopefully MR and the clan will be next in line  

MAC1 wrote:

SF sympathy vote would be best found in Colombo (if it is there in numbers)

Not so good news for UNP - A sympathy vote will split their voter base. Though I really wonder how much of a "sympathy vote" the swan will get ... I suspect not much.

We shall soon see the UNP trying to bring down it's erstwhile "Common Candidate"

Quote:

The opposition alliance fell apart when different parties failed to select a common symbol to contest the parliamentary elections April 8.

Those are the guys who wanted SF to become the president of Sri Lanka (Pathetic isn't it?). As the saying goes 'Thimbiri gei mala daruwa"'  The child who died in the labour room

MAC1 wrote:

Well for me the safest would be to bet on where the JVP is strongest. JVP had over5% vote base in Galle, Matara, & Hambanthota (MR’s home district, where JVP’s strongest showing over 10% ). Or Anuradapura. Rest of the districts JVP showing is around 3% or slightly less in the most recent elections.

If I was to pick I would have gone for Hambantota, for two reasons firstly that is where JVP is strongest and sure to secure a win, secondly taking on MR’s home town where his kith & kin are contesting.

Do you expect JVP to sacrifice there strong holds, that’s the reality in politics. SF is not a matured politician he runs on his ego and others ride on it. SF sympathy vote would be best found in Colombo (if it is there in numbers) and JVP base is 2.5% so chances if JVP is alone they may not get a seat but with SF vote if there is (unknown) SF can scamper through, whilst JVP do not loose any of there prospective places and still butter SF.    

Survival in real politics will depend on how prudent you are and how you learn the game. If SF was a quick leaner and a strategist, he should have taken RW’s call, gone with him taking on the deputy leader position in the UNF. Here he would have learned the ropes faster. Also won and toped a district easily from the opposition side and kept head high and entered to the Parliament without any sweat. On this route he could have posed a real threat to RW’s leadership whilst he builds his own political base.

SF is a too egoistic character to see through all this. Others know it. RW knows much better than anyone else and plays accordingly.

this is a good analysis MAC1.
SFs loyalty towards JVP proves one thing that SF was approached and convinced to contest PE by JVP.
So he intend to stay close to JVP than UNP.

I also agree SF should have taken RWs call, then he would have survived to fight another day even UNF looses GE. And he may have had a better future in 2016/2017.

If DNA cannot garner much votes that would be end of SFs political career.  Unless he wish to be one like Vasudewa or Wickremabahu..

Negombo wrote:

this is a good analysis MAC1.

Be careful pat on the back, friends are watching - just kidding – only for fun.  

Quote:

SFs loyalty towards JVP proves one thing that SF was approached and convinced to contest PE by JVP.

I still remember when media questioned RW whether he met then CDS Gen SF in Singapore or spoke over the phone, RW has laughed and said something to the effect that “yes” for those who wants to hear that way and “no” to others. RW replied within the boundaries. Later in the campaign trail to stir things up and to prove they did it first, Mangala said that the Gen SF whilst in uniform did flirt with the opposition and in fact they had even to change vehicles to prevent the authorities not able to come to know. Tilvin went on to say that Gen SF spoke to him seeking advice from USA. Such were damaging statements and resulted and helped for SF to be where he is today.

To me both UNF and JVP had an equal hand, SF was half dressed up to take on MR at the PE and the UNF and JVP got him to wear the tie and the blazer.

Quote:

So he intend to stay close to JVP than UNP.

My thinking that SF to go with the JVP is with the style and attitude of his. SF style and attitude was exposed during the PE. SF egoistic attitude “I am the leader” could be retained with the JVP and not possible with RW.

Quote:

If DNA cannot garner much votes that would be end of SFs political career.  Unless he wish to be one like Vasudewa or Wickremabahu..

SF’s Political carrier will depend on his attitude. Whether SF enters Parliament or not he will be a looser in this round. Is he willing to accept the reality and work out his future strategy? The way things are unfolding my guess is “NO”. That’s why I won’t compare him with Vasu & Bahu. Vasu has won and lost, Bahu never entered Parliament, but both did not care much about the final result they did what they ought to have thought right and enjoyed. They are a different breed of fish.

Having said that I agree with you, net result he would become a pretty ordinary guy in politics


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MAC1